Jun
Increases and decreases were mixed, but according to the different scenario from the previous day, Robusta decreased and Arabica increased. After increasing sharply for three consecutive days, Robusta coffee prices suddenly cooled down. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices turned up again as they benefited from a USD that has not yet recovered.
Domestic coffee prices were adjusted down by 600 VND/kg to trade in the price range of 124,400–125,700 VND/kg. In the early morning of June 7, on the US market, the US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring fluctuations in the greenback with six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, and CHF), decreased by 0.18%. , down to 104.19.
Experiencing a chaotic trading session, Robusta turned down after rising sharply to reach its highest level in 2 and a half months, due to pressure to liquidate buying positions after news of ICE’s Robusta coffee inventory. Monitoring on June 6 increased to a 10-month high of 5,167 lots.
The adjustment session of the London exchange, according to experts, is reasonable because the technical indicators for this coffee commodity since the beginning of the week have all been in a downward direction. Strong speculative buying helped Robusta increase from the beginning of the week. However, when the price reaches its peak, there will be a strong selling force that will pull the market down quickly.
The recovery of ICE coffee inventories from historic lows is negative for prices, especially as it often stimulates those holding large buying positions to liquidate their holdings while waiting for the season. East Brazil arrives.
Over the past two weeks, entities such as fund managers and speculators have not liquidated their long positions as predicted but have increased their net purchases, causing the market price to increase again. with high milestones that have been established.
However, the phenomenon of the export price of Arabica coffee being 32 USD/ton lower than Robusta is unprecedented in the more than 50-year history of the world coffee industry. The reason for this change is that in the past, roasters and processors gradually changed their formulas to use more Robusta coffee ingredients because of lower prices and higher profits.
When Robusta is used a lot but the supply is short, the price increases while the roasting and processing formula cannot be changed one way. In the long term, Robusta coffee prices continue to be reinforced by concerns that the excessive drought in Vietnam does not seem to have improved.
Analysts predict that the London coffee market is likely to still have room to increase as it has strongly surpassed the peak of April 25. Technical indicators on the daily chart of the London market all show a good signal to support the bulls.
In particular, according to the position report of the London market as of May 28 compared to a week ago, fund managers increased their buying positions to 30,464 lots compared to the number of buying positions of 28,421 lots a week ago. the week before.
While the New York market showed weakness on the technical chart, the RSI buying/selling strength correlation index in this market showed the weakness of buyers, even though this index has not reached the minimum level. Multi. This market seems to have failed when trying to conquer the nearest old peak in the range of 233–235 cents based on price 9.
On June 6, certified-grade Arabica coffee stocks on the New York market were said to have increased by 7,945 bags, recording this inventory at 798,683 bags. Meanwhile, certified Robusta coffee inventories on the London Stock Exchange are said to have increased by 43,000 bags as of June 4, registering at a total of 826,167 bags, of which Conillon Robusta from Brazil accounts for more than 90%.
Despite impressive export value growth, Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing a decline in export output due to prolonged heat and drought. Since the beginning of the coffee season in October 2023, Vietnam has exported more than 1.2 million tons of coffee, meaning inventories are low while prices remain high.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the 2023–2024 crop year may reach 1.61 million tons of all kinds of coffee, of which about 1.46 million tons are green coffee. According to Vietnam Customs, from the beginning of the crop year (2023–2024) to the end of May, Vietnam’s coffee export volume has reached about 1.2 million tons.
The continuous increase in coffee prices in recent times has caused exporters to face many difficulties because domestic prices have increased faster than world prices.
Some Vietnamese businesses said that, in fact, the export price of Robusta coffee has now reached 5,200–5,500 USD/ton, while Arabica coffee is between 4,000 and 5,200 USD/ton.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) expects coffee prices to remain high in June. However, the Ministry of Agriculture urges farmers not to increase coffee production without following the plan.
Coffee is one of seven products covered by the EU’s Deforestation Regulations, which will come into force later this year. According to this regulation, coffee, if not proven to be unrelated to deforestation after December 31, will not be allowed into the EU.
Source: Tincaphe.com
Tiếng Việt