World Coffee Prices Increased Strongly Last Week: Domestic Coffee Prices May Still Go Up; Exports to Indonesia Increased by Three Digits

Overall, for the whole week, it still increased, even though the weekend was a downward adjustment session. During the week, funds and speculators returned to commodity markets to increase purchases, helping the price of green Robusta coffee in the Vietnamese domestic market set an all-time record high. Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by 1,600–1,800 VND/kg last week. Currently, the record price of 95,000 VND/kg is still being held in Dak Nong.

Reports on ICE inventory data on both exchanges show that it is being replenished strongly. Arabica coffee prices increased to an 8-1/2-month high of 586,077 bags, escaping a 24-year low reported in early October 2023. Robusta rose to a 7-week high, registering at 29,280 metric tons, mainly Brazilian Conilon Robusta coffee.

Meanwhile, the Robusta coffee inventory certified and monitored by the London exchange, as of March 22, increased by 2,030 tons, or 7.45% compared to a week earlier, to register at 29,280 tons (about 488,000 bags, 60 kg bags), a quite strong increase that has contributed to coffee futures prices returning to a downward trend.

Over the weekend, the rising USD pushed most commodity markets in general into the red, and the two coffee futures markets were no exception.

The General Department of Vietnam Customs reported preliminary data showing that coffee exports, mainly Robusta coffee, in the first half of March reached 199,719 tons (about 3.32 million bags), an increase of 119.47% over the same period last year. This high export volume has refuted speculation that Vietnamese farmers are hoarding goods and do not want to sell at current prices.

According to Reuters, low supply and high demand have caused the price of green Robusta coffee in the Vietnamese domestic market to soon reach a record high of 100,000 VND/kg. According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), coffee exports from Vietnam to Indonesia recorded a growth rate of up to three digits in the first two months of the year.

Specifically, Vietnam exported more than 21,300 tons of coffee to Indonesia, earning 71.37 million USD, equivalent to an increase of 215% in volume and 235% in value over the same period. Indonesia is also a major coffee producer in the region; however, in recent years, the country’s output has been affected by many extreme weather phenomena.

According to Reuters, growing areas here have faced unusual weather with record-high rainfall due to the influence of La Nina from 2020–2022. Last year, they continued to endure a severe drought due to the effects of El Nino. The prolonged impact of adverse weather means this year’s coffee harvest in Indonesia is forecast to be the lowest in many years.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) believes that in the 2023–2024 crop year, this country’s coffee production will decrease by 2.2 million bags compared to the previous crop year, down to 9.7 million bags. Mainly due to Robusta production decreasing by 2.1 million bags to 8.4 million bags.

Too much rain during coffee fruit development has reduced yields in the lowlands of South Sumatra and Java, which account for about 75% of Indonesia’s Robusta area. Arabica coffee output is also forecast to decrease slightly to 1.3 million bags. With this forecast, Indonesia’s green coffee exports are expected to decrease by 2.7 million bags to only 5 million bags in the 2023–2024 crop year.

Source: Tincaphe.com