Apr
Coffee Prices Will Still Have Spikes: Indonesia’s Exports Outpace Imports
World coffee prices: There are new developments; Robusta has mixed increases and decreases, increasing sharply in the July delivery period, while Arabica decreased sharply across the floor. Domestic coffee prices continue to increase, approaching 130,000 VND/kg. The highest price recorded in Dak Lak and Dak Nong is 129,500 VND/kg, and the lowest in Lam Dong is 128,500 VND/kg.
The recovery of Arabica coffee supply has created pressure to liquidate buying positions on the futures exchange. Inventories of certified-grade Arabica coffee held on the New York market were said to have increased by 7,980 bags on April 19, at 643,090 bags.
The weather in Brazil’s main coffee plantation areas is creating favorable conditions for the progress of harvesting and drying this crop. While the Robusta coffee supply is most expected from Vietnam, at this time it continues to be tight. Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said: Vietnam’s coffee export volume in the 2023–24 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% compared to the previous crop year, down to 1.336 million tons.
In fact, coffee exports in the first half of April 2024 only reached 80,781 tons, down 20.7% over the same period last month and down 3.9% over the same period in 2023. The climate scenario in Southeast Asia continues to be the main concern of the current coffee market.
Although humidity is forecast to increase in Vietnam over the next few weeks, the expected rainfall is still not enough to ease producers’ concerns. In addition, in other Robusta-growing countries, climate is also a major concern for Robusta output.
In the context of a scarce Robusta coffee supply, any problem affecting supply at this time will increase concerns and easily cause price spikes.
Coffee exports far exceeded imports, contributing to bringing Indonesia’s coffee trade surplus to a total of about 55.38 million USD in March. According to Statistics Indonesia, the country maintained more coffee exports than imports for the 47th consecutive month since May 2020.
Accordingly, the value of Indonesia’s coffee imports in March 2024 will be about 32.07 million USD. Indonesia mainly imports coffee from Vietnam and Brazil. However, Indonesia’s coffee exports are currently higher than the amount of coffee the country buys from other countries.
Along with Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia, Indonesia is one of the world’s largest coffee producers. The Indonesian government has recently implemented policies to support the development of coffee production, such as giving farmers access to preferential capital and investing in modern processing equipment. However, the hot weather caused by El Nino is affecting the harvest productivity of coffee plantations.
Climate scenarios in Southeast Asia continue to be a major concern for the current coffee market. Although humidity is forecast to increase in Vietnam over the next few weeks, the expected rainfall volume is still not enough to allay producers’ concerns.
In addition, in other Robusta-growing countries, climate is also a big concern for output. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) said: The country’s coffee exports in March 2024 decreased by 32% compared to the same period in 2023, after a poor crop harvest in one of the regions. This country’s main grower of Robusta coffee.
In a report, UCDA said that this East African country exported 329,686 bags of coffee (60kg) in March 2024, a decrease compared to the previous year, partly due to the delay in starting the fall season. plan. Uganda is where Robusta coffee is mainly grown and is the largest coffee exporter in Africa, followed by Ethiopia.
Source: Tincaphe.com
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