Robusta Coffee Price Drops Sharply During Shortage: Exceeding Peak During Harvest Time, India’s Concern Like Vietnam

Extended mixed movements into the weekend session. Among them, Arabica coffee rose to its highest level in nearly 6 months, and Robusta coffee reached a new record high before gradually decreasing for two consecutive sessions.

Robusta coffee prices have abandoned their high mark and dropped for two consecutive sessions due to profit-taking activities after ICE-monitored Robusta coffee inventories were reported to have increased to their highest level in the past 2 and a half months, located at 3,094 lots.

Previously, in the long term, concerns about excessive drought in Vietnam will continue to limit Robusta coffee production in new crops, while the existing supply shortage, which is difficult to compensate from other sources, still remains. are factors that boost Robusta coffee prices and support the increase in Arabica coffee prices.

According to CEPEA, the Conillon Robusta crop has begun to be harvested in some areas, while Brazilian domestic prices have surpassed the 1,000 real/60 kg bag mark for the first time. Or Indian coffee prices are also moving in sync with global Robusta coffee prices, which are witnessing a strong upward trend due to supply disruption from leading producer Vietnam.

India’s exports in the fiscal year ending March 2024 have hit a record level in value, exceeding $1.26 billion thanks to low prices.
Robusta coffee is on the rise. Situation Robusta supply from India is said to be facing the same problem as in Vietnam, where prices have increased sharply in recent times.

Indian coffee exporters are concerned that rising Robusta coffee prices may cause customers to switch to buying in other producing countries, while some Vietnamese exporters also have similar concerns.

Domestic coffee prices have officially exceeded the threshold and are anchored at over 100,000 VND/kg. But the amount of Vietnamese coffee has gradually dried up, and there is not much in stock among businesses and farmers. Therefore, export volume from now until the end of the season is forecast to decrease.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the impact of climate change and the El Nino phenomenon causes drought throughout global coffee-growing regions, causing output to decline. In Vietnam alone, output will decrease by 10% in the 2023–2024 crop season as people switch to other crops that bring higher value.

Meanwhile, inventories in businesses are at record lows, and low supply pushes prices up. In addition, geopolitical conflicts and tensions in the Red Sea region cause shipping costs and many other costs to increase. The increase in coffee prices is also due to speculative activities by many financial investors.

In the first quarter of 2024, Vietnam exported nearly 600,000 tons of coffee with a turnover of about 1.9 billion USD, an increase of only over 3% in quantity but an increase of over 54% in export turnover. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, coffee is the product with the second highest export turnover in the agricultural sector, second only to wood products, and has surpassed seafood.

Vietnam’s leading coffee export markets in recent times are still the EU, Japan, US, Russia, etc. where the EU continues to be Vietnam’s largest coffee export market.

Source: Tincaphe.com