Seafood exports in 2024 can recover the peak level of USD 10 billion

VASEP forecasts that export turnover in 2024 can reach USD 9.5 billion – 10 billion, an increase of 6-11% compared to 2023. If the results are favorable, the seafood industry can recover the peak level as in 2022.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in 2023, Vietnam’s seafood exports reached nearly USD 9 billion, a decrease of 8% compared to 2022.

VASEP forecasts that seafood exports may gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. Export turnover in 2024 can reach USD 9.5 billion – 10 billion, an increase of 6-11% compared to 2023.

Of which, the shrimp industry aims to reach the target of USD 4 billion, pangasius about USD 1.9 billion, and the remaining seafood products are forecast to earn about USD 3.6 – 3.8 billion.

Vietnamese shrimp will continue to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply. The oversupply situation may continue until the first half of 2024, world shrimp production in 2024 would increase by 4.8% to 5.9 million tons.

Ecuador and India are increasing their market share in the US, China, EU and Japan, while increasing processed shrimp exports although the proportion is still modest.

Consumer demand in the US market is recovering slowly and there is an increasing trend of importing cheap shrimp from Ecuador. Exporting shrimp to the US will be more difficult if countervailing duty is imposed.

For the pangasius, according to VASEP, inventory in the US, China, and EU markets is no longer an issue. Seafood export prices will also increase again in markets. Feed costs continue to be a major challenge for both the shrimp and pangasius farming industries.

As for seafood, the IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge for the industry. Industries such as tuna, squid, octopus and marine fish are most affected.

In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, fighting in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues around the world also disturb global trade, including seafood.

The consequence is increased transportation costs and increased prices of input products for aquaculture and seafood processing. This could cause a new inflationary storm affecting seafood consumption demand in 2024.

Among Vietnam’s main markets, China is considered to have strong resilience, but pays low prices and is difficult to compete with.

In addition, businesses may increase the import of raw materials for production, export and for increasing the processing for the Japanese and American markets.

(Source: https://www.agribank.com.vn/)