Vietnam’s pangasius market in the second half of 2025: Tight supply, export prices show signs of recovery

In July 2025, pangasius export value to most major markets saw slight declines: China & Hong Kong down 3%, the US down 0.3%, Brazil down 5%, and Mexico down 33%. Meanwhile, exports to the UK and EU edged up, and Thailand surged 65%.

In terms of prices, the average export price of pangasius in July decreased slightly by 1%, to USD 2.14/kg. Farm-gate prices fell by 9–10% month-on-month, while fingerling prices dropped by 5%. However, by late July and early August, fingerling prices rebounded as supply tightened.

Export prices on the rise

Toward the final months of the year, prices are expected to trend upward. Export prices are projected to increase from September, as raw fish supply remains limited and fingerling survival rates are low, while many farmers are deliberately holding back fish in anticipation of better prices. Adverse weather with heavy rains and temperature fluctuations has pushed farming costs higher, reinforcing the upward price momentum.

The shortage of fingerlings is also pressuring the market. Farmers are reluctant to sell small fish, waiting instead for them to reach larger sizes, leading to scarcity through the end of August. With prices already higher than in the past three years, it is expected that once processing plants deplete their reserve stocks, purchase prices from farmers will continue to rise.

Export challenges and opportunities in the year-end period

In import markets, the US is the most noteworthy factor. From August, the countervailing duty on pangasius directly imported from Vietnam was cut from 46% to 20%. While this is not an entirely negative signal, US buyers remain cautious, focusing on clearing inventories, so demand has yet to rebound strongly. The new tariff policy therefore still leaves many uncertainties for year-end prospects.

In China, purchasing demand has shown signs of slowing, particularly for whole fish and frozen fillets. Average prices have inched up slightly, but fluctuating inventories mean this market requires close monitoring.

In contrast, the EU and CPTPP bloc are expected to maintain their backbone role thanks to tariff preferences and stable demand. Export prices to the EU may bottom out by late August before recovering in September, driven by tighter raw material supply. ASEAN is also seen as a promising market with steady consumption, while South America and the Middle East could offer new avenues to ease reliance on the US and China.

Brazil remains a potential risk, as it may be indirectly affected by the 50% import tariff the US plans to impose on goods from this country, should pangasius be included in the list.

Vietnam’s pangasius industry is entering a decisive stage in 2025. Rising raw material prices due to limited supply, coupled with trade policy changes from the US and unstable demand in China, are creating both pressure and opportunity.

In this context, maximizing the benefits of free trade agreements with the EU and CPTPP, while accelerating diversification into ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East, will be key for Vietnamese exporters to sustain growth. If well leveraged, the current price recovery trend provides a strong basis for the pangasius sector to achieve higher profitability and meet its 2025 export targets.

Source:  https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/