In 2024, these challenges may continue to influence seafood production and export. In addition, there will be more challenges that will slow down Vietnam seafood exports.
The Seafood Trade Newsletter provides 10 oustanding remarks on market trends and seafood export forecasts as follows:
- Inflation in big countries has been controlled, the global economy has bottomed out, but recovery is slow, affecting demand for seafood. The Russia-Ukrainian conflict, unrest in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues disrupt global trade, including seafood. These situations may lead to the consequences: increased transportation costs, increased prices of input products for aquaculture and seafood processing. It could also cause a new inflationary wave, impacting seafood consumption demand in 2024.
- The cycle of price reductions for many aquatic species may continue in the first half of 2024.
- US market: demand recovers slowly and there is an increasing trend of importing cheap shrimp from Ecuador. Vietnam’s shrimp exporting to the US might become challenging if anti-subsidy taxes (CVD) are imposed.
- China: Demand recovers strongly, but prices remain low, making it difficult to compete
- Feed costs continue to be a major challenge for both shrimp and pangasius farming industries
- Shrimp: continues to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, the oversupply situation may continue until the first half of the year (global shrimp production in 2024 is expected to rise by 4.8% to 5.9 million tons). Ecuador and India are expanding their market share in the US, China, EU and Japan, while increasing processed shrimp exports, although the proportion is relatively small.
- Pangasius: Inventory in the US, China, and EU markets is no longer a problem. Export prices will increase again in markets. In addition to frozen fillets, the trend of importing value-added pangasius and by-products (fish maw, pangasius surimi and pastes) continues to grow.
- Seafood: IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge; if unresolved in 2024, it might cause exports to the EU to stagnate. Industries like tuna, cephalopod and marine fish are most affected. Regarding consumption: market demand focuses on cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for processing, dried fish, and dried shrimp.
- There will be a growing trend of outsourcing after the Chinese seafood processing industry was accused of using forced labor (Uighurs) and China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports caused Japanese factories to turn to Vietnam for processing partners. In addition, businesses may increase raw material imports for export production and processing for the Japanese and American markets.
- It is forecasted that Vietnam’s seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. With adaptation to the market context, seafood enterprises are expected to push the industry’s export revenue recovery, reaching 9.5 billion USD – 10 billion USD in 2024. In particular, the shrimp industry aims for 4 billion USD in exports, pangasius to reach around 1.9 billion USD, and marine products expected to generate about 3.6 – 3.8 billion USD.