Coffee prices simultaneously went down: the US reduced imports from Brazil and increased imports from Vietnam.

Simultaneously adjusted downward on trading floors. Domestic coffee prices adjusted slightly down; the highest price is currently 82,100 VND/kg recorded in Dak Nong province, and the lowest is 81,200 VND/kg recorded in Lam Dong.

Expert Nguyen Quang Binh assessed that yesterday’s session marked the return of the Arabica floor. At the beginning of the session, the USD fell, pushing the price of this coffee product on the New York floor to increase. But towards the end of the session, strong selling pressure from funds and speculators liquidated previous short-buying contracts, pulling both exchanges down.

This morning, on the US market, the US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, and CHF), decreased by 0.24%, down to 104.05.

The dollar weakened in a recent trading session after China cut interest rates in an effort to boost the real estate market, raising hopes that additional measures will boost global growth. .

Previously, the Agricultural Policy and Supply Management Company (Conab), under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, forecast that in 2024 this country’s output is expected to reach 58.08 million bags (60kg type), an increase of 5.5% compared to the previous crop, when entering the “good” year period in the two-year production cycle.

BBA Investment Bank, the largest in Latin America, headquartered in London, has forecast that Brazil’s new coffee crop in the 2024/2025 crop will be 69.40 million bags, 4.68% higher than the previous year. This forecast is slightly higher than the average of other independent forecasts, which predict that total Brazilian coffee production in the 2024–2025 crop year is likely to reach 68 million bags on average.

This information also negatively affects trading prices on the New York floor. However, scarce supply will still be the factor keeping transaction prices at high levels. In particular, ICE-EEurope’s inventory report data on February 19 continued to decline to a record low of 19,800 tons (about 330,000 bags, 60 kg bags), the lowest level since 2014, as the report showed. Trading activities in Vietnam slowed down during and after the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

In addition, the slight increase in the Brazilian real exchange rate also supports the upward price trend. According to the latest report of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in January 2024, the price of Robusta coffee in the domestic market increased sharply compared to the end of 2023, continuously conquering new peaks that are likely to continue. continue to increase.

According to estimates, Vietnam’s coffee exports in January 2024 reached 210 thousand tons, worth 621 million USD, up 1.1% in volume and 3.5% in value compared to December 2023. Compared to January 2023, it increased by 47.6% in volume and 99.6% in value.

According to calculations from data from the General Department of Customs, in 2023 the average export price of Robusta coffee will be 2,253 USD/ton, an increase of 14% compared to 2022. The amount of Robusta coffee exported will reach over 1.42 million tons. , worth 3.2 billion USD, down 9.8% in volume but up 2.8% in value compared to 2022.

According to calculations from statistics from the US International Trade Commission, in the first 11 months of 2023, the US imported 1.3 million tons of coffee worth 7.5 billion USD, down 13.7% in volume. and 14.3% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

The average US coffee import price in 2023 will be 5,773 USD/ton, down 0.8% compared to 2022. In particular, the average US coffee import price from many major suppliers decreased, but the price of imports from Vietnam increased by 3.8% to 2,416 USD/ton.

In the first 11 months of 2023, the US imported coffee from 106 countries and territories around the world. In particular, the main coffee suppliers to the US include Brazil, Colombia, Vietnam, Honduras, and Guatemala. Of which, the US imported coffee from Brazil, reaching 315.23 thousand tons, worth nearly 1.25 billion USD, down 26.4% in volume and 32.3% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

Brazil’s coffee market share in total US imports decreased from 28.48% in the 11 months of 2022 to 24.29% in the 11 months of 2023.In contrast, the US increased coffee imports from Vietnam in the first 11 months of 2023, an increase of 4.5% in volume and an increase of 8.4% in value compared to the same period in 2022, reaching over 139 thousand tons, worth 335.81 million USD.

Vietnam’s coffee market share in total US imports increased from 8.85% in the 11 months of 2022 to 10.71% in the 11 months of 2023.


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