Coffee exports could reach 4.5–5 billion USD in 2024.

From now until April 2024, Europe can almost only rely on Vietnam to buy Rubosta coffee. It is forecast that coffee prices in Vietnam will continue to increase.
Export prices reached a record.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, in November 2023, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 80 thousand tons, earning 252 million USD, down 37.9% in volume and 17.5% in value. compared to November 2022.

The previous October, Vietnam’s coffee exports were at a record low of only 43,720 tons, worth about 157.6 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, coffee exports decreased sharply by 48.8% in volume and 28% in value.

In the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated to reach approximately 1.38 million tons, worth 3.54 billion USD, down 12.9% in volume and 2.5% in value compared to the previous year. same period last year.

The data show that although export volume decreased sharply, the decrease in value was lower because export prices were increasing over the same period. Vietnam’s average coffee export price in November 2023 reached a high of 3,148 USD/ton, an increase of 32.8% compared to November 2022. In the cumulative 11 months of this year, Vietnam’s average export price of this type of nut is estimated at 2,570 USD/ton, up 11.9% over the same period last year.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam’s export coffee prices have continuously increased sharply and have been at record highs for many years. However, currently, most businesses are repaying debt from old contracts.

Coffee exports are forecast to reach 4.5–5 billion USD in 2024. Illustration photo

Although prices are high, businesses have cleared out warehouses, and the quantity of our country’s crop products is still insignificant for export. Currently, coffee in the Central Highlands is entering the harvest season, and the purchasing price is approaching 60,000 VND/kg. This price helps coffee growers earn big profits.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said that an increase in coffee export prices leads to an increase in domestic coffee prices. It is expected that the amount of coffee exported in 2023 will reach about 1.72 million tons, with a value of more than 4.2 billion USD. This is a new record in coffee exports for many years.

Exports can reach 4.5–5 billion USD.

According to Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intimex Group, although in 2023 Vietnam’s coffee exports will decline quite a lot in volume, with an expected decrease for the whole year of 15%, While exports decrease, green coffee prices in Vietnam will increase in 2023, sometimes reaching 70,000 VND/kg.

Forecasting the 2023–2024 crop year, Mr. Nam said that the new crop year is considered to still have many difficulties and challenges for the world coffee industry. Accordingly, climate change and extreme weather events will greatly affect the global coffee supply, causing productivity and quality to decrease.

For information about the new 2023–2024 harvest, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vicofa, said that up to now, about 50% of the output has been harvested. Due to unfavorable weather, it is expected that in the 2023–2024 crop year, Vietnamese coffee output will decrease significantly.

It is forecast that coffee output will only reach about 1.6–1.7 million tons. Coffee productivity increased in Lam Dong but decreased in many other provinces, such as Gia Lai, Dak Lak, and Dak Nong.

Due to reduced output combined with increased domestic demand, it is expected that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the 2023–2024 crop year will continue to decrease, to about 1.4 million tons.

It is worth noting that right at the beginning of the 2023–2024 crop year, the price of Vietnamese green coffee was at a very high level, about 60,000 VND/kg. Mr. Do Ha Nam said that such a high price at the beginning of the crop is also something that has never happened in the history of the Vietnamese coffee industry. Coffee prices on the London floor are also at a high level.

Also, according to Mr. Nam, if in 2023, by June, there is almost no coffee left in the population for businesses to buy, then in 2024, it will only be possible by May, even April, when it is out of stock.

“From now until April 2024, Europe can almost only rely on Vietnam to buy Rubosta coffee. Therefore, it is likely that coffee prices in Vietnam will continue to increase and may be at the highest level in the world in 2024,” Mr. Nam said.

Sharing the same opinion, Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh, a coffee expert, said that coffee prices for the 2023–2024 crop year will continue to be anchored at a high level. By June 2024, if major economies in the world continue to reduce interest rates, coffee exports will continue to benefit. Because this is the time when roasters around the world buy coffee to stock up, coffee prices have no chance of going down.

Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh analyzed that currently major markets such as the EU and US are changing their consumption demand from importing green coffee to processed coffee. Therefore, Vietnam must also prioritize investment in deep processing facilities to increase the value of coffee products and aim for sustainable development.

Forecasting the coffee export situation in 2024, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Vice President of Vicofa, acknowledged that coffee exports in the 2023–2024 crop year could reach 4.5–5 billion USD thanks to continued coffee prices. increased while output decreased.

According to Vicofa, output is decreasing while domestic coffee consumption is tending to increase. Currently, the total productivity of the instant coffee processing plant is estimated at 100,000 tons of finished products per year, equivalent to 230,000 tons of green coffee, and is expected to increase in the near future due to many investment projects and capacity expansion.. Domestic coffee consumption in 2024 is expected to increase in the near future.

In 2024, the market for roasted, ground, and processed coffee and domestic consumption is stable, expected to be about 150,000 tons. Total domestic green coffee consumption could increase to 350,000–400,000 tons per year if instant coffee factories reach full capacity.


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