The USD is increasing in value, causing the JPY and EUR to depreciate too much against the USD. This may cause disturbances in the world currency market and affect the import and export of goods, including seafood of Vietnam.
On July 14, the JPY fell to a new 24-year record low against the US dollar. The main reason why the JPY fell sharply against the USD was because investors were worried that the interest rate gap between the two economies would widen if the Fed continued to raise interest rates.
The Euro also saw the first time in 20 years fall to parity with the US dollar. One of the reasons for the Euro’s depreciation was the sharp increase in gas prices and the uncertainty surrounding energy supplies from Russia related to the conflict in Ukraine, causing recession in the Euro area. While the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) raised interest rates strongly to reduce inflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) has not made similar decisions.
When the Euro depreciates against the USD, although Vietnamese enterprises are not affected because most of Vietnam import and export transactions use USD, the profits of buyers decrease so they can reduce demand for Vietnamese exporters. Besides, when the local currency weakens, imported goods become more expensive, European consumers will consider spending, choosing necessities with affordable prices, which reduces demand.
The JPY fell to a 24-year low against the dollar. There has been a situation where Japanese importers proposed to renegotiate import prices to compensate for their losses when the JPY depreciated. Besides, there is a situation where the customer has signed a contract before, but negotiates to receive the goods slowly. Having suffered a lot when the local currency depreciates, Japanese importers will also adjust their plans and import demand during this period.
Another concern is that when the USD appreciates, the cost of importing raw materials will also increase. This will affect Vietnamese enterprises, who is importing raw materials for processing and exporting.
Accounting for 14% of Vietnam’s total seafood export turnover, Vietnam’s seafood exports to Japan in the first half of this year reached over 800 million USD, up 18% over the same period.
Under inflationary pressure, seafood prices in Japan have continuously increased in recent years. Moreover, the JPY depreciated, falling to the lowest level in 24 years, making Japanese consumers have to consider and tighten their spending, so it is difficult for seafood exports to this market to have significant breakthroughs from now until the end of the year.
Accounting for 12% of Vietnam’s total seafood export turnover, seafood exports to the EU market in the first half of 2022 reached over 688 million USD, an increase of more than 41% over the same period last year. After increasing by 58% in the first quarter, seafood exports to the EU in the second quarter also slowed down, up 31% to reach 390 million USD.
The EU is also a market with high inflation in the first half of this year. The record inflation of 8% in the second quarter shows that the EU’s trade is in crisis, after Covid and especially after trade sanctions with Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine. Inflation cast a shadow over the Eurozone economy, reducing consumption demand of Europeans.Therefore, high-priced seafood products will be on the list that consumers must consider to reduce.
In the current situation of the world commodity market and foreign exchange market with many fluctuations, export enterprises must pay attention to the exchange rate between VND and foreign trade payment currencies, in order to choose the market export, import and choose a payment currency that is most beneficial.
The close cooperation of the government, ministries, branches and banks in flexibly directing, implementing prudent monetary policies, adjusting exchange rates, and reasonably stable interest rates is always very necessary for businesses in the current unpredictable situation.
Compiled by Thuy Linh