How gold fluctuates around God of Wealth Day

Between 2013 and 2022, gold prices often surged in the two weeks leading up to the God of Wealth Day and then fell right after as demand declined.

In the last 10 years there were eight years when gold prices started to rise two weeks before the God of Wealth Day (the 10th day of the lunar new year), data compiled by VnExpress shows. This year, the God of Wealth Day falls on Tuesday.

Last year, the Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC) sold gold at VND62.55 million ($2,667.66) per tael on the 25th day of the lunar month of December. The company then pumped up the price 1.44% to VND63.45 million 12 days later.

The same trend happened this year when the price of gold rose 0.88% to VND68.5 million on the first trading day of the lunar year, which fell on last Friday.

The rise turned into a decline, however, on the ninth day of the lunar new year, one day before the God of Wealth Day. In the last 10 years there were six years when gold trading closed that day lower.

Quy, a vendor of a jewelry shop in Thu Duc City, said that people often sell on the ninth day after seeing that prices have been rising. However, the surge in supply then exceeds demand and gold shops have to lower their prices as a result.

On the 10th day, prices often surge in the morning before dropping in the afternoon, as people get up early to buy the metal in hope of gaining fortune for the whole year.

In 2020, shops sold gold at VND600,000 higher per tael in the morning before prices fell by VND550,000 in the afternoon.

Tran Minh To, owner of a gold shop in Ho Chi Minh City’s District 8, said that customers only buy small amounts of gold in the morning for luck, while others wait to sell in the afternoon to take advantage of the expected higher price.

“A few years ago I saw a customer buying two taels in the morning and then come back to sell dozens of taels in the afternoon,” said To.

After the God of Wealth Day, prices start to drop, as happened in eight out of the last 10 years, with a decline of between VND100,000 and VND1 million per tael.

Within two weeks after God of Wealth Day, prices still declined in six of the last 10 years.

An exception, however, was recorded last year when prices surged 5.79% two weeks after the God of Wealth Day, due to concerns about Russia-Ukraine tensions.