Tariff shake-up in US whitefish market opens door for Vietnam’s pangasius

The United States has announced new tariffs of up to 50% on seafood imports from Brazil, effective August 1, a move set to disrupt global whitefish supply chains. Vietnam, currently the second-largest whitefish supplier to the US, may be positioned to benefit.

The duties, unveiled by US President Donald Trump on July 9 as part of a broader retaliatory trade package, target eight countries, with Brazil facing the highest rates. Key seafood categories are expected to be affected, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).

International Trade Centre (ITC) data shows Brazil ranked fifth among US whitefish suppliers in 2024, behind China, Vietnam, Iceland, and Colombia. Brazilian exports reached nearly USD 59 million, largely composed of tilapia fillets. In the first five months of 2025, exports surged 62% year-on-year to Usd 32 million.

The impending 50% tariff could drive average import prices above USD 4.00/kg, up from the current USD 2.70-2.90/kg range. VASEP anticipates that US buyers will be forced to reconsider procurement strategies, especially in the whitefish category, which dominates Brazil’s seafood exports.

Brazil’s domestic supply chain, from farming to processing, may be strained. US importers could face shipment delays, contract renegotiations, or be prompted to pivot to alternative suppliers.

Vietnam, while also facing retaliatory measures, appears to have acted early. Several exporters have reportedly front-loaded shipments ahead of the tariff rollout.

Vietnam Customs reports that pangasius exports to the US reached USD 175 million in H1 2025, up 10% y-o-y. Exports of value-added pangasius products (HS code 16) surged 48% to USD 26 million. Pangasius remains Vietnam’s dominant whitefish export to the US.

VASEP sees opportunities emerging in the wake of Brazil’s retreat, particularly in the value-added segment. However, exporters face headwinds from a broader global trade slowdown and rising input costs, which are pressuring pricing, logistics, and margins.

China, the top US whitefish supplier, remains shielded from new tariffs under a deferral agreement signed in May. In the first five months of 2025, Chinese whitefish exports to the US reached USD 368 million, nearly double the same period last year.

VASEP warns that while Vietnam stands to gain in the short term, overdependence on the US market poses long-term strategic risks. The association is urging exporters to expand into Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America to hedge against external volatility.

Source:  https://vietfishmagazine.com/