Vietnamese pangasius maintains export momentum amid policy and market fluctuations

Market overview: A blend of bright spots and challenges

China and Hong Kong remain the largest importers of Vietnamese pangasius. By the end of July 2025, exports to this market reached $302 million, down 4% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 25% of Vietnam’s total pangasius export value. In July alone, exports to this market dropped 3% to $53 million, reflecting a slowdown in demand, particularly for whole pangasius and frozen fillets segments.

The CPTPP bloc has emerged as a prominent bright spot for Vietnamese pangasius imports. Exports to CPTPP markets in the first seven months of this year reached $208 million in the first seven months of 2025, a 34% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by markets such as Canada, Malaysia and several Latin American countries, benefiting from tariff advantages and stable consumer demand.

Exports to the U.S. hit $206 million in the first seven months, up 8% compared to previous year. However, July 2025 saw a slight decline (0.3%) to $31 million compared to July 2024. New tariff policies expected from August 1, poses a “big question mark” for the market outlook in the remaining months of the year.

Brazil continues to show strong potential, with exports reaching $106 million in the first seven months, a surge of 64% year-on-year. However, Brazil faces potential indirect impacts from the U.S.’s planned 50% tariff on goods from certain countries, which could affect whitefish, including pangasius.

EU imports of Vietnamese pangasius reached $104 million by July 2025, up 5% compared to the same period in 2024. Strong growth in Spain, Belgium, Italy and France offset declines in Germany and the Netherlands.

Processed products: A highlight in export structure

Frozen pangasius fillets remain Vietnam’s key pangasius export, generating $976 million in the first seven months, increase 11% year-on-year. Notably, exports of deeply processed pangasius (HS16) reached $30 million, rise 41% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth reflects a shift toward higher-value products that meet stringent market requirements and reduce risks from tariffs and raw material price fluctuations.

Outlook for the remaining months: Opportunities and challenges

In the second half of 2025, Vietnamese pangasius exports will be simultaneously affected by multiple factors. The potential U.S. tariff hike on whitefish exporters could reshape global supply chains, offering both opportunities to expand market share and risks from price competition.

Additionally, China’s demand requires close monitoring due to its sensitivity to price fluctuations and inventory levels. Meanwhile, the EU and CPTPP are expected to remain reliable “pillars”, supported by FTAs and consistent demand.

In the latter half of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports are expected to face headwinds if the U.S enforces a new 20% retaliatory tariff. Pangasius, in particular, will bear significant pressure on costs and pricing, especially as demand in China slows, compelling exporters to diversify into ASEAN, South America and the Middle East. Clearly, the U.S tariff serves as a stark reminder of the risks of overreliance on a single market. Yet, with proactive strategies and effective trade negotiations, Vietnamese pangasius still has opportunities to sustain its growth momentum and achieve its 2025 export targets.

Source:  https://seafood.vasep.com.vn/