Light and dark colors for year-end agricultural exports
Faced with the bright and dark colors of agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports over the past 10 months and promising or challenging forecasts for the remaining 2 months of 2023, it is necessary for businesses in this field to closely follow the situation. image. From there, continue to have appropriate policies to seek growth opportunities for yourself at the end of the year.
In the summer of October 2023, after a period of negotiation and production focus, a container carrying 10 tons of green banh chung from Ba Ba Hoi Cooperative (Tam Ky City, Quang Nam Province) was discharged from the warehouse and onto a ship to the American market to serve overseas Vietnamese to celebrate the nation’s traditional Tet.
Although the value of the above goods is still modest, it is still a positive signal of the cooperative economic sector when it helps the agricultural, forestry, and fishery industries accelerate the export of agricultural products in the consumer season at the end of this year.
(Cashew nut exports have been one of the bright colors for agricultural product exports in nearly 10 months. It is forecasted to continue to be exciting in the last 2 months of the year when the demand for cashew nuts for holidays and Tet increases sharply.)
As in the seafood industry, exports entering the end of the year are still facing many challenges; however, some enterprises have recorded positive growth thanks to proactive adaptation and market flexibility. The positive signal is that the decline in exports is showing signs of slowing down, and market demand at the end of the year is gradually increasing.
Mr. Nguyen Van Dao, General Director of Go Dang Seafood Company (Dong Thap), commented that the seafood market will have prosperity and more positive changes from now until the end of the year.
According to the latest forecast from the Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep), with the gradual recovery of markets, seafood exports in the fourth quarter of 2023 will likely reach 2.4 billion USD, equivalent to the same period last year, thereby bringing export turnover for the whole year 2023 to 9 billion USD, 17% lower than 2022.
The level of recovery in seafood export sales in the coming time depends largely on two main markets: the US and China. Both of these markets have positive signals in terms of demand. Orders from these two markets are increasing again, but export prices are still lower than the same period last year.
Recently, in the report updating the business situation in the fourth quarter of 2023 at the leading enterprise in exporting pangasius, Vinh Hoan Joint Stock Company (VHC), the Analysis Department of VCBS Securities Company said that import demand will recover slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 when festivals in the West approach.
However, the analyst also notes the risk that pangasius inventory in importing countries remains high, and it is forecast that it will take until the end of June 2024 for import demand to recover strongly. Persistent inflation in importing countries affects consumer demand.
In addition to the seafood industry trying to recover, on the year-end export journey for agriculture, forestry, and fishery products, the market trend is accelerating most clearly with rice products. Many businesses in the Mekong Delta have taken advantage of the opportunity to boost exports and negotiate reasonable selling prices to bring profits to farmers and businesses.
As of mid-October 2023, Vietnam exported nearly 6.73 million tons of rice, earning over 3.73 billion USD, an increase of 17% in volume and a sharp increase of 34.5% in value compared to the same period last year.
With the above figure, Vietnam’s rice export turnover surpassed the milestone of 3.65 billion USD (2011), officially setting a new historical record after 34 years of participating in the world market. As calculated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the highest scenario, this year Vietnam can export about 7.8 million tons of rice, reaching a turnover of about 4.2–4.5 billion USD.
Have appropriate strategies to find growth opportunities.
As for fruit and vegetable exports, the latest forecasts show that the whole year’s export turnover will likely reach about 5.5 billion USD, of which durian becomes the main force helping fruit and vegetable turnover grow dramatically. Vegetables and fruits are the export product group with the most impressive growth in turnover in nearly 10 months, reaching 4.9 billion USD, an increase of 78.4% over the same period in 2022.
To achieve such spectacular export numbers, it is also necessary to recognize the flexibility and efforts of businesses in the fruit and vegetable industry in expanding markets, increasing trade connections, investing in deep processing, and applying advanced processes.
As shared by Mr. Nguyen Van Hien, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Chanh Viet Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company (Long An), the company is linking with import partners in the form of B2B (business-to-business) so that these partners import the company’s raw materials to further process passion fruit products.
Besides, according to Mr. Hien, to maintain export growth momentum, the company actively searches for new customers and new markets. At the same time, the company still focuses on old customer groups to meet their needs.
In the fourth quarter, great opportunities continue to open up for fruit and vegetable exports as demand is high during the festive season and there is still plenty of room for export growth. The problem is how businesses and cooperatives take advantage of this opportunity to increase export turnover.
In the bright colors of agricultural product exports up to this point, we need to add cashew exports. According to forecasts, Vietnam’s cashew export activities will continue to be vibrant in the last 2 months of the year, when the demand for cashew nuts for holidays and the New Year will increase sharply. In the first nine months of 2023 alone, our country’s cashew exports are estimated to reach 456 thousand tons, worth 2.6 billion USD, up 19.6% in volume and 14.3% in value compared to the same period last year.
However, besides bright colors, there are still dark colors for agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports in nearly 10 months, of which the remaining 5 products all recorded a decrease, including: seafood, tea, pepper, cassava, and coffee.
For example, the cumulative export turnover of pepper from the beginning of the year to mid-October 2023 has decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year. And according to forecasts, it will likely continue to be quiet in the remaining 2 months of 2023 because importers have almost bought enough goods at the present time.
Not only that, recent reports from Nedspice Group and Simexco Daklak both share the same opinion that Vietnam’s pepper output will decrease by 15% in 2024.
Or, like cassava, export turnover in nearly 10 months has also decreased by nearly 10%. However, the possibility of recovering export growth in this industry is still in the last months of 2023, which is the peak consumption season for Chinese food products, which will have a positive impact on the export prospects of cassava and other products. from Vietnamese cassava to this market.
In general, with the light and dark colors of agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports over the past 10 months and the promising and challenging forecasts ahead, it is necessary for businesses in this field to closely follow the situation to continue to have success. Appropriate policies to find growth opportunities for yourself at the end of the year.